CARLSON: Here is one very scary statistic that requires us to start thinking about unthinkable ideas. Right now, federal spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid is nine percent of the nations economy. Nine percent of gross domestic product. By 2050, in 45 years, 44 years, at current growth rates we will go from spending 9% of GDP to 28% of GDP.
Unfortunately, John failed to specify a source for his information (something he would demand of a caller on a cell phone who had different numbers). But a simple internet search brings up two very official sources that dispute his bleak version of the future:
The official 2005 report on the financial status of Social Security and Mediare gives a 75-year outlook on the cost of those programs. For medicaid costs, the CBO has a handy forecast from 2003. Those combine to give the following:
| Program | %GDP in 2050 |
|---|---|
| Social Security: | 9% |
| Medicare: | 8.3% |
| Medicaid: | 3.2% |
| Total: | 20.5% |
So Carlson is off by almost 8% vs. the current forecast of a Republican federal government. And that's assuming a very pessimistic outlook on the future of the US economy (let's call it the "Republicans Stay In Charge" forecast). The Social Security Administration estimates that long-term productivity growth will average 1.6% per year, which is lower than the post-World War II average of 1.8%, and significantly lower than the average annual average of 2.7% in the period of 1995-2005 (source: Department of Labor).
In fact, if the low productivity forecasts and the absurdly low estimate of future population growth are brought into line with historical trends, less pessimistic economists have made the case that we may not have an entitlement problem at all. Add back the trillions spent on Bush's tax cuts to the rich, and then we're talking about a completely different future.